H2 History Predictions 2026

With a new exam cycle beginning and the A-Level season approaching once again, many students are already asking which H2 History topics might appear in 2026. Given the strong interest and the steady stream of requests I’ve received, I’ll be offering another round of predictions this year for the 9174 syllabus, using the same analytical methodology that has guided my past breakdowns.

However, it is important to state clearly that I do not advocate question-spotting, nor do I encourage students to rely on predictions alone. Spotting is unreliable and gives a false sense of security. Instead, my goal is to help students prepare strategically and intelligently for any topic the examiners may choose.

In this article, we will take a careful, data-driven look at which H2 History topics may be more or less likely to reappear in 2026. Now that the 2025 papers have been released, we can examine the updated pattern of topic rotation and non-repetition that Cambridge has been following.

Our analysis will be grounded in two key principles:

1. Frequency — Topics that have appeared repeatedly since the introduction of the 9174 syllabus tend to be less likely to be chosen again.

2. Recency — Topics that have just appeared (e.g. in 2025) are typically less probable for immediate repetition.

   
   

The aim is not to predict exact questions, but to provide informed observations to guide revision priorities for the 2026 cohort.

Now, let's delve into the potential topics for each paper:

Paper 1: Cold War Case Study

Origins of the Cold War: This topic was featured in the official specimen paper for the 9174 syllabus. However, it has not appeared in live exams yet therefore, it is quite likely it may be tested. Probability: Medium–High

Korean War: This topic appeared in the 2024 A-Level exam, which significantly reduces the likelihood of it being selected again within a short rotation cycle. Probability: Low.

Cuban Missile Crisis: This topic has not yet appeared under the 9174 syllabus, nor was it featured in the specimen paper. It remains untouched in both 2024 and 2025 exam cycles. Probability: High

Vietnam War: This topic has also not yet appeared under the 9174 syllabus and has been absent from recent exam cycles. It is one of the major Cold War conflicts yet to be tested. Probability: High.

End of the Cold War: This topic was tested in the 2025 A-Level exam. Cambridge rarely repeats Case Study topics immediately the following year, making it unlikely for 2026. Probability: Low.

Based on this analysis, the most probable topics for 2026 are the Origins of the Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Vietnam War.

Paper 1: Global Economy Essay

Growth of the Global Economy: This topic has already appeared twice under the 9174 syllabus—once in the 2024 A-Level paper and once in the official specimen paper. Probability: Medium-High.

Decline of the Global Economy: This topic was tested in the 2025 A-Level exam. Since Cambridge often avoids repeating the same topics in consecutive years, its chances of appearing again in 2026 are reduced. Probability: Medium.

Based on this analysis, the more probable topic for 2026 is the Growth of the Global Economy, given that Decline was tested in 2025. However, it is still possible for Decline to reappear, as Growth has already been featured twice under the 9174 syllabus — once in the specimen paper and once in the 2024 A-Level exam — which may lead Cambridge to continue balancing their rotation.

Paper 1: China and Japan Essay

China: The China essay question most recently appeared in the 2024 A-Level paper. It has therefore been over one cycle since it has appeared. Probability: Medium–High.

Japan: The Japan essay featured in the official specimen paper and was tested in the 2025 A-Level exam. Since Cambridge rarely repeats regional essay topics in back-to-back years, Japan becomes less probable for 2026. Probability: Low.

Overall, while both topics remain possible, China appears more likely for 2026, especially given that Japan was just tested.

Paper 1: Inter-State Conflicts

Indo–Pakistani Conflict:This topic was tested in the 2024 A-Level paper. Probability: Medium–High.

Arab–Israeli Conflict:This topic featured in the official specimen paper and was tested in the 2025 A-Level exam. Probability: Low.

Overall, while both topics remain possible, the Indo–Pakistani Conflict appears more likely for 2026, especially since the Arab–Israeli Conflict was tested in 2025.

Paper 1: Intra-State Conflicts

Bosnian War:This topic was tested in the 2024 A-Level paper. With the Congo Crisis appearing in 2025, the Bosnian War becomes the more likely option for 2026. Probability: Medium–High.

Congo Crisis: This topic featured in the official specimen paper and was tested in the 2025 A-Level exam. Given its recent appearance, it is less probable for 2026. Probability: Low.

Overall, the Bosnian War appears more likely for 2026, especially since the Congo Crisis was tested in 2025.

Paper 2: Inter-State Tensions and ASEAN

Third Indochina War: This case study was tested in the 2024 A-Level paper, making it less likely to be selected again in the near term. Probability: Low.

Konfrontasi: This case study appeared in the official specimen paper. While that reduces its likelihood slightly, specimen topics are still more likely than recently tested live topics. Probability: Medium.

Preah Vihear Dispute, Sabah Dispute, Singapore–Malaysia Water Dispute: These three territorial disputes have not yet appeared under the 9174 syllabus and were not selected in 2025. With ASEAN being tested last year, the probability of one of these disputes appearing in 2026 is relatively strong. Probability: High.

ASEAN: This topic was tested in the 2025 A-Level exam (Formation of ASEAN and relations to external powers), making it less likely for 2026. However, if it is tested, the focus is likely to shift to different aspects—for example, ASEAN and Economic Cooperation or ASEAN’s expansion involving Myanmar and Cambodia—rather than repeating the formation narrative. Probability: Low.

Overall, the most likely case studies for 2026 are the Preah Vihear Dispute, the Sabah Dispute, and the Singapore–Malaysia Water Dispute. A less likely—but still possible—set of options includes Konfrontasi and an ASEAN question focused on a different angle, such as Economic Cooperation (ASEAN).

Paper 2: Economic Change in Southeast Asia

Pursuit of economic growth, equity, and nationalism: This was tested in the specimen paper, which lowers its likelihood. However, because it is a central organising theme of the topic, it cannot be ruled out entirely. Probability: Medium.

Agricultural sector – agricultural modernisation: This appeared in the 2024 A-Level paper. Probability: Low.

Industrial sector – shift from ISI to EOI:This was tested in the 2025 A-Level exam. Cambridge has rarely repeated sector-specific essays in consecutive years. Probability: Low.

Financial services sector – expansion, liberalisation, and regulation: This has not yet been tested under the 9174 syllabus and was not selected in 2025, making it a strong candidate for 2026. Probability: High.

Importance of key sectors and extent of economic diversification: This area has also not appeared in live exams under the current syllabus. Probability: High.

Domestic economic conditions: Untouched so far under 9174 and unaffected by the 2025 selections. Probability: High.

Role of government – intervention, aims, and strategies: This was tested in the 2024 A-Level exam, reducing its likelihood for 2026. Probability: Low.

External conditions – Cold War developments and external economic developments: This topic was tested in the 2025 exam (Cold War’s economic impact). Cambridge usually avoids repeating a specific theme immediately in the following year. Probability: Very Low.

Outcomes of Economic Change:Appeared in the specimen paper. Typically low priority unless Cambridge decides to revisit a thematic overview. Probability: Low.

Overall, the more likely focus areas for 2026 are the Financial Services Sector, Domestic Economic Conditions, Economic Diversification, and (to a lesser extent) the overall pursuit of economic growth, equity, and nationalism—given that both the Industrial Sector and External Conditions were tested in the 2025 exam.

Paper 2: Political Structures in Southeast Asia

Use of military force: This was featured in the specimen paper, which lowers its likelihood of appearing again in the near term. Probability: Low-Medium.

Popular opposition: Tested in the 2024 A-Level paper (together with government performance), making it unlikely for 2026. Probability: Low.

Government performance:Also appeared in the 2024 exam as part of the popular opposition question. Probability: Low.

Democratic and authoritarian governments: This has not yet been tested under the 9174 syllabus, making it one of the strongest candidates for 2026. Probability: High.

Decolonisation experience:This topic was tested in the 2025 A-Level exam. Given its recent appearance, it is unlikely to be repeated in 2026. Probability: Very Low.

Role of local political elites and the masses: This remains untested under the current syllabus and is a strong possibility for 2026. Probability: High.

Cold War developments: This has not yet appeared under the 9174 syllabus and remains a potential option. Probability: High.

Role of government leaders: Also untested under this syllabus, keeping it firmly in the high-probability category. Probability: High.

Constitutional processes and elections: Yet to appear in a live exam, making it another likely focus area for 2026. Probability: High.

Traditional institutions (religion and monarchy): Tested in the 2025 A-Level exam. Probability: Very Low.

Overall, the most likely subtopics for 2026 are Democratic vs Authoritarian Government Systems, Constitutional Processes and Elections, the Role of Local Political Elites and the Masses, Cold War Developments, and the Role of Government Leaders—given that both Traditional Institutions and Decolonisation were tested in the 2025 exam.

Paper 2: National Unity in Southeast Asia

• Challenges of ethnic separatism: This topic was tested in the 2024 A-Level paper, making it less likely to appear again this year. Probability: Low.

• Overall government approaches to building national unity: This broad framing appeared in the specimen paper, which lowers its probability of reappearing soon. However, it has been some time since it has appeared. Probability: Medium.

• Specific tools and approaches (e.g. education, language policy, religion, national service): These have not yet been tested under the 9174 syllabus. As such, questions focusing on specific methods used by governments to promote unity are more likely to be tested this year. Probability: High.

  
  

Overall, since ethnic separatism has already been covered, the more probable focus for 2025 is on specific policies and tools used to foster national unity—such as education, language, or national integration programs or a general framing quesiton about overall government approaches to national unity.