H2 History Predictions 2025

With the A-Level exams fast approaching, many students are once again eager to know which topics might appear. Given the continued interest and the number of requests I’ve received, I’ve decided to offer another round of predictions this year for the 9174 syllabus. However, as an educator, I must emphasize that I do not support spotting exam questions. The practice is risky and lacks certainty. Instead, I strongly advocate for a study approach that prepares students for any possible topic.

In this article, we will conduct a careful analysis of potential H2 History topics based on historical trends. This analysis is not intended to spot questions but rather to offer informed observations of topic releases by Cambridge.

For each H2 History paper, we will examine the historical appearance of topics over the last six years, taking into account both their frequency and recency. The logic is simple: topics that have appeared frequently since the current syllabus came into effect are considered less likely to be chosen again, while, in contrast, those that have emerged more sparingly hold a higher potential for inclusion. Additionally, topics that appeared most recently are also considered less probable to be chosen again. Given that the 9174 syllabus is still relatively new, this analysis will take into consideration both the 2024 A-Level paper and the official specimen papers released by Cambridge.

Now, let's delve into the potential topics for each paper:

Paper 1: Cold War Case Study

• Origins of the Cold War: This topic was featured in the official specimen paper for the 9174 syllabus. Given that, it is less likely to be tested again soon. Probability: Low.

• Korean War: This topic appeared in the 2024 A-Level exam, which significantly reduces the likelihood of it coming out again this year. Probability: Low.

• Cuban Missile Crisis: This topic has not yet appeared under the 9174 syllabus, nor was it featured in the specimen paper. Probability: High

• Vietnam War: This topic has also not yet appeared under the 9174 syllabus and has been absent from recent exam cycles. Probability: High.

• End of the Cold War: Like Vietnam, this topic has yet to appear under the current syllabus, making it another strong contender for this year. Probability: High.

  
  

Based on this analysis, the most probable topics for 2025 are the Vietnam War, the Cuban Missile Crisis and the End of the Cold War

Paper 1: Global Economy Essay

• Growth of the Global Economy: This topic has now appeared twice under the new 9174 syllabus—once in the 2024 A-Level paper and once in the specimen paper. Given its frequent appearance, it is less probable this year. Probability: Low.

• Decline of the Global Economy: This topic has yet to appear under the 9174 syllabus, making it a more likely candidate for this year’s exam. Probability: High.

  
  

Based on this analysis, the more probable topic for 2025 is Decline of the Global Economy, given that Growth has already been covered twice under the current syllabus.

Paper 1: China and Japan Essay

• China: The China essay question appeared most recently in the 2024 A-Level paper, which lowers its probability of appearing again this year. Probability: Low.

• Japan: The Japan essay featured in the specimen paper, but has not yet appeared in the actual A-Level exams under the 9174 syllabus. While it has been showcased before, it holds a moderate to higher probability compared to China. Probability: Medium–High.

  
  

Overall, while either topic could be tested, Japan appears slightly more likely this year due to the recent appearance of China in 2024.

Paper 1: Inter-State Conflicts

• Indo–Pakistani Conflict: This topic was tested in the 2024 A-Level paper, which lowers its likelihood of appearing again this year. Probability: Low.

• Arab–Israeli Conflict: This topic was featured in the specimen paper, but has not yet appeared in an actual A-Level exam under the 9174 syllabus. While it has been used as a sample, its absence from past live exams suggests a moderate chance. Probability: Medium–High.

  
  

Overall, both topics have had recent exposure in different forms, but based on recency alone, the Arab–Israeli Conflict appears slightly more likely to be tested in 2025.

Paper 1: Intra-State Conflicts

• Bosnian War: This topic was tested in the 2024 A-Level paper, making it less likely to be repeated this year. Probability: Low.

• Congo Crisis: This topic appeared in the specimen paper. While it has been showcased before, it holds a moderate to higher probability compared to the Bosnian War.

  
  

Overall, the Congo Crisis is more likely to appear in 2025, given that the Bosnian War was tested just last year.

Paper 2: Inter-state Tensions and ASEAN

• Third Indochina War: This case study was tested in the 2024 A-Level paper, making it less likely to come out again this year. Probability: Low.

• Konfrontasi: This appeared in the specimen paper, which lowers its chances slightly, though not as much as an actual exam appearance. Probability: Medium.

• Preah Vihear Dispute, Sabah Dispute, Singapore–Malaysia Water Dispute, ASEAN:All four of these have not yet appeared under the 9174 syllabus, making them relatively stronger candidates for this year. Probability: High.

  
  

Overall, given the recency of the Third Indochina War and Konfrontasi, the remaining four case studies—particularly the territorial disputes and ASEAN—are more likely to be tested in 2025.

Paper 2: Economic Change in Southeast Asia

• Pursuit of economic growth, equity, and nationalism: This was tested in the specimen paper, reducing the likelihood of it appearing again. However, given how central it is to this topic, the likelihood is medium. Probability: Medium.

• Agricultural sector – agricultural modernisation: This topic appeared in the 2024 A-Level paper, lowering its chances of being tested again this year.Probability: Low.

• Industrial sector – shift from import-substitution industrialisation to export-oriented industrialisation: This has not yet been tested under the current syllabus, making it a strong candidate. Probability: High.

• Financial services sector – expansion, liberalisation, and regulation: This has also not yet been tested, increasing its likelihood. Probability: High.

• Importance of key sectors and extent of economic diversification: This aspect has not appeared under the 9174 syllabus so far. Probability: High.

• Domestic economic conditions: This has not yet been tested, making it a likely option. Probability: High.

• Role of government – government intervention, aims, and strategies: This was tested in the 2024 A-Level paper, which reduces its probability for this year. Probability: Low.

• External conditions – Cold War developments and external economic developments: This topic has not yet been tested, making it another potential candidate. Probability: High.

• Outcomes of Economic Change: This was tested in the specimen paper, suggesting a lower likelihood of reappearance this year. Probability: Low.

  
  

Overall, the more likely focus areas for 2025 are topics that have not yet appeared under the new 9174 syllabus—especially the industrial sector, financial services, domestic and external economic conditions, and economic diversification.

Paper 2: Political Structures in Southeast Asia

• Use of military force: This was featured in the specimen paper, which lowers its chances of appearing again. Probability: Low.

• Popular opposition: This was tested in the 2024 A-Level paper, alongside government performance. Probability: Low.

• Government performance: Also appeared in 2024 as part of the popular opposition question. Probability: Low.

• Democratic and authoritarian governments: This has yet to be tested under the 9174 syllabus, making it a strong candidate. Probability: High.

• Decolonisation experience: This has not appeared yet, increasing its likelihood. Probability: High.

• Role of local political elites and the masses: Another untested topic so far. Probability: High.

• Cold War developments: This has yet to come out, which gives it a higher chance. Probability: High.

• Role of government leaders: This has not yet been tested, so it remains a probable area of focus. Probability: High.

• Constitutional processes and elections: Untested so far under the new syllabus. Probability: High.

• Traditional institutions (religion and monarchy): This has not yet appeared, making it another strong possibility. Probability: High.

  
  

Overall, most subtopics under Political Structures remain untested under the 9174 syllabus. Given that military force and popular opposition (along with government performance) have already appeared, the focus this year is likely to shift toward newer areas such as democratic vs authoritarian systems, constitutional development, local elites, and traditional institutions.

Paper 2: National Unity in Southeast Asia

• Challenges of ethnic separatism: This topic was tested in the 2024 A-Level paper, making it less likely to appear again this year.Probability: Low.

• Overall government approaches to building national unity: This broad framing appeared in the specimen paper, which lowers its probability of reappearing soon.Probability: Low.

• Specific tools and approaches (e.g. education, language policy, religion, national service): These have not yet been tested under the 9174 syllabus. As such, questions focusing on specific methods used by governments to promote unity are more likely to be tested this year.Probability: High.

Overall, since both the general government approach and ethnic separatism have already been covered, the more probable focus for 2025 is on specific policies and tools used to foster national unity—such as education, language, or national integration programs.

While no prediction can guarantee what will appear in the 2025 A-Level H2 History papers, this analysis offers students a strategic lens through which to prioritize their revision. By examining past trends and eliminating recently tested topics, we can make more informed guesses about potential areas of focus. Ultimately, the best preparation remains a comprehensive one. Mastering the syllabus in its entirety, while paying special attention to less-tested areas, will put you in the strongest position to tackle any paper with confidence. Best of luck!