As the A-Level exams draw near, students often find themselves eager to know what topics might appear. However, as an educator, I must emphasize that I do not support spotting exam questions. The practice is risky and lacks certainty, as evident in 2019 when the topic of AFC did not come out despite widespread expectations. Instead, I strongly advocate for a study approach that prepares students for any possible topic.
In this article, we will conduct a careful analysis of potential H2 History topics based on historical trends. This analysis is not intended to spot questions but rather to offer informed observations of topic appearances.
For each H2 History paper, we will examine the historical appearance of topics over the last six years, taking into account both their frequency and recency. The logic is simple: topics that have appeared frequently since the current syllabus came into effect are considered less likely to be chosen again, while, in contrast, those that have emerged more sparingly hold a higher potential for inclusion. Additionally, topics that appeared very recently are also considered less probable to be chosen again.
Now, let's delve into the potential topics for each paper:
Paper 1: Cold War Case Study
Origins of the Cold War: The topic appeared in 3 out of the last 6 years (2020, 2019, 2018), making it less likely to appear again. Probability: Low.
Korean War: The topic did not appear in any of the last 6 years, making it more likely to appear this time. Probability: High.
Cuban Missile Crisis: The topic appeared in 1 out of the last 6 years (2021). Probability: Low.
Vietnam War: The topic appeared in 1 out of the last 6 years (2017). However, it has been a while since this topic has appeared. Probability: Medium.
End of the Cold War: The topic appeared in the most recent Paper 1 (2022), making it less likely to appear again. Probability: Low.
Based on this analysis, the most probable topic would be the Korean War.
Paper 1: Global Economy Essay
Growth of the GE: The topic appeared in 4 out of the last 6 years (2022, 2020, 2019, 2018) and also came out recently in 2022, making it less likely to appear again. Probability: Medium.
Decline of the GE: The topic appeared in 2 out of the last 6 years (2021, 2017) Probability: Medium.
Based on this analysis, it seems more probable for the next topic to be Decline of the GE since it has been longer since it last appeared in the paper, and it has also appeared noticeably fewer times than the Growth of the GE.
Paper 1: Taiwan and South Korea Essay
Taiwan: The topic appeared in 3 out of the last 6 years (2022, 2019, 2017) and also came out recently in 2022, making it less likely to appear. Probability: Low.
South Korea: The topic appeared in 2 out of the last 6 years (2021, 2018) and also came out recently in 2021, making it less likely to appear. Probability: Low.
Both Taiwan and South Korea: The topic appeared in 1 out of the last 6 years (2020), making it less likely to come out again. Probability: Medium.
Based on this analysis, the most probable topic for the next paper on the Taiwan/South Korea topic would be Both Taiwan and South Korea, followed by South Korea which has appeared slightly less than Taiwan in the past six years and less recently.
Paper 1: United Nations Essay
UN: The topic appeared in 2 out of the last 6 years (2020, 2017), and it has not come out since 2020. Probability: High.
Security Council: The topic appeared in 2 out of the last 6 years (2022, 2018). It came out recently in 2022, making it less likely to appear again. Probability: Low.
Secretary-General: The topic appeared in 2 out of the last 6 years (2021, 2019). Probability: Medium.
Peacekeeping: The topic appeared in 2 out of the last 6 years (2022, 2020), and it came out recently, making it less likely to come out again. Probability: Low.
ICJ (International Court of Justice): The topic appeared in 1 out of the last 6 years (2020). Probability: High.
Reforms: The topic appeared in 3 out of the last 6 years (2020, 2018, 2017). Probability: Low.
General Assembly: The topic only appeared in 1 out of the last 5 years (2021). Probability: High.
Hence, the most probable topics for the United Nations would be the UN, General Assembly as well as the ICJ.
Paper 2 ASEAN/Inter-State Tensions Case Study
ASEAN: The topic appeared in 3 out of the last 6 years (2022, 2020, 2018) and also came out recently in 2020. Probability: Medium.
Interstate Tensions: The topics within "Interstate Tensions" appeared in 3 out of the last 6 years (2021, 2019, 2017), and specific crises like Sidipan-Ligitan Crisis, Pedra Branca Crisis, and Sabah dispute have been covered. Probability: Medium.
Based on this analysis, it is difficult to determine a clear preference for ASEAN or Inter-State Tensions. However, if we have to choose, it seems slightly more probable for the next topic to be Interstate Tensions since it has been longer since it last appeared as compared to ASEAN, which appeared last year. For inter-state tensions, it should also be noted that the specific crises (e.g., Pedra Branca) that have already come out in recent years are the least probable topics to come out.
Paper 2 Asian Financial Crisis Essay
Causes: The topic appeared in 3 out of the last 6 years (2021, 2020, 2017). Probability: Moderate.
Consequences: The topic appeared in 2 out of the last 6 years (2022, 2018). However, it also came out recently in 2022, which might decrease its likelihood. Probability: Moderate.
It is difficult to determine a clear preference for either "Causes" or "Consequences" in the 2023 AFC paper. Also, do be prepared that it is possible that no AFC question appears at the A-Levels, as was the case in 2019.
Paper 2 Economic Development Essay
I will not analyse historical trends regarding economic development questions because there are so many different possibilities of questions that can appear for this topic.
Paper 2 Political Stability Essay
Democracy: The topic appeared in 2 out of the last 6 years (2020, 2018). Probability: Low.
Maximum Governments: The topic appeared in 1 out of the last 6 years (2019). Probability: Medium.
Decolonisation: The topic did not appear in any of the last 6 years, making it more likely to come out this time. Probability: High.
Role of Political Elites and Masses: The topic did not appear in any of the last 6 years, making it more likely to come out this time. Probability: High.
Cold War: The topic appeared in 1 out of the last 6 years (2019). Probability: Medium.
Leaders: The topic appeared in 1 out of the last 6 years (2021), which was relatively recently, making it less likely to come out again. Probability: Low.
Constitutional Processes and Elections: The topic did not appear in any of the last 5 years, making it more likely to come out this time. Probability: High.
Military: The topic did not appear in any of the last 6 years, making it more likely to come out this time. Probability: High.
Traditional Institutions (such as religion and monarchy): The topic did not appear in any of the last 6 years, making it more likely to come out this time. Probability: High.
Popular Opposition: The topic appeared in 1 out of the last 6 years (2017). However, it has been some time since it has been tested. Probability: Moderate.
Based on this analysis, the most probable topics to appear are: Decolonialisation, Role of Political Elites and Masses, Constitutional Processes and Elections, Military and Traditional Institutions.
Paper 2 National Unity
It is challenging to divide the topic of national unity into specific subtopics -focus on the effectiveness of government policies in achieving the outcome of national unity.
Final Predictions for 2023 H2 History A-Levels:
Paper 1 | Paper 2 |
|---|---|
Korean War Case Study | Inter-State Tensions Case Study |
Decline of the Global Economy Question Taiwan/South Korea Combined Question | Constitutional Processes Question National Unity Question |
United Nations Question General Assembly Question | Causes of the AFC Question Economic Development Question |
All in all, it is essential to approach exam preparation with a well-rounded and comprehensive H2 History 9752 study plan that covers all potential topics. Understanding historical trends can provide valuable insights, but ultimately, the key to success lies in a thorough understanding of the subject matter. By adopting a diligent and holistic study approach, students can equip themselves to confidently tackle any topic that comes their way during the H2 History A-Level exams. Good luck!
One great way for you to better prepare yourself is by equipping yourself with top-quality notes, model essays and study tips. You can find all of these by assessing the following: H2 History Guides, where you will find all these useful H2 History resources.